Chapter: The Use of Spies 13.5
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Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.

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You can be bold and brash and have as much gut-feel as you like but if you do not base your decisions on sound data you are simply gambling.

Even reasoning, if it is based on bad knowledge, will be fruitless. ‘Garbage in, garbage out’, as they say.